Merge pull request 'Verify Cen A, book CrA on T8 for the 22 Jul evening, rebuild the rate model' (#15) from campaign-ledger-2026-07-21 into main

CAMPAIGN.md

@@ -26,15 +26,27 @@ Update after every run: date, scope, target, imaging minutes, points charged
 | 2026-07-19 | T33 | 47 Tuc | ngc104-test.txt | 17 min | 0 (free) | DID NOT RUN | reservation 749228 expired unused: no images, no logs on T33 (checked 20 Jul); grid shows reschedule=No despite the flag being set at booking |
 | 2026-07-19 | T59 | NGC 6744 | ngc6744-t59.txt | 180 min | ~240 (0% moon disc. until 21 Jul) | **381** | SUCCESS (txn 851148): ran 00:05:22-03:29:56 SSO, Time Used 3h24m32s, 0% moon disc. Full dataset on scope server: L 15x300s BIN1, RGB 7x300s each BIN2; previews checked, round stars, galaxy clean: no refund case. Effective rate ~112 pts/hr of WALL time (not the 80/hr imaging-time estimate: see NOTES rate correction) |
 | 2026-07-20 | T33 | NGC 6752 | ngc6752.txt | 17 min | 0 (free) | DID NOT RUN | reservation 749229 expired unused: no images, no logs (checked 20 Jul 20:30 UTC, after window) |
+| 2026-07-21 | T32 | Centaurus A | cena-t32.txt | 120 min | ~350 (x1.6 model) | **160** | SUCCESS (txn 851344): ran 18:50:24-21:16:19 SSO local (08:50-11:16 UTC), Time Used 2h25m55s, 25% moon discount. Images present: /images/qisback/T32/NGC5128 on t32.itelescope.net:8032. Came in at 0.46x the x1.6 model, i.e. LESS than the original estimate: see the rate correction below |
 
-Cumulative spend: 381. Balance after (verified GetAccountStatus 2026-07-20): **2,257**.
+Cumulative spend: 541. Balance after (verified GetAccountStatus 2026-07-21
+11:40 UTC): **2,097**.
 
-**Re-estimation warning (2026-07-20):** T59 actual came in at 1.6x the estimate
+**Rate correction (2026-07-21, supersedes the 2026-07-20 x1.6 warning).** Two
-(381 vs ~240). Either billing is on wall-clock session time (Time Used matched
+paid runs now bracket the question, and both bill EXACTLY the plan's imaging
-start-to-end, not the 180 min of exposure) or the rate card's 80/hr for T59 is
+minutes, not wall-clock:
-stale. Treat ALL queue estimates below as ~1.6x low until re-verified against
+
-account/history.aspx after the next paid run. At 1.6x, the remaining queue
+| Scope | Plan imaging | Wall (Time Used) | Billed | Points per imaging hour |
-(~1,700 est) actually covers the full 2,257 balance nicely.
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| T59 | 180 min (36x300s) | 3h24m32s | 381 | **127** (0% moon) |
+| T32 | 120 min (24x300s) | 2h25m55s | 160 | **80** (25% moon) |
+
+381 = 3.00 h x 127 and 160 = 2.00 h x 80, both to the point. So billing is on
+imaging time as originally documented, and the wall-clock theory is dead. What
+is wrong is the rate card in NOTES.md: it lists T59 at 80/hr (actual 127) and
+T32 at 146/hr (actual 80 even after the 25% moon discount, so a base near
+107/hr). The two look transposed, but two samples cannot prove that. **Do not
+apply a blanket multiplier.** Derive each scope's effective rate from its first
+actual bill, and treat any not-yet-observed scope's card rate as +/-60%.
 
 ## Planned allocation (~2,600 points, adapt as scopes/weather allow)
 
@@ -66,7 +78,8 @@ account/history.aspx after the next paid run. At 1.6x, the remaining queue
 | 749228 | T33 | 19 Jul | 00:05-00:50 | ngc104-test.txt | 0 | EXPIRED unused (no run, no auto-reschedule) |
 | 749229 | T33 | 20 Jul | 00:05-00:50 | ngc6752.txt | 0 | EXPIRED unused (no run, no auto-reschedule) |
 | 749230 | T8 | 26 Jul | 21:35-23:55 | catspaw-t8.txt | ~146 (25% moon disc.) | still booked |
-| 749302 | T32 | 21 Jul | 18:50-21:50 | cena-t32.txt | ~350 (x1.6 rate, 25% moon disc.) | booked 20 Jul. EVENING slot: T32 has a 35 deg elevation floor and Cen A culminates ~17:10 before dark, sinking to 11 deg by the old 00:35 slot (which could never have run). 46% moon is up ~30 deg away: acceptable for a bright drain target. Reschedule flag AGAIN shows No despite RescheduleCheckbox=on in the POST: the flag does not stick, treat every booking as one-shot. RUNS 08:50-11:50 UTC 21 Jul; verify after that |
+| 749302 | T32 | 21 Jul | 18:50-21:50 | cena-t32.txt | ~350 (x1.6 rate, 25% moon disc.) | COMPLETED, billed 160. EVENING slot: T32 has a 35 deg elevation floor and Cen A culminates ~17:10 before dark, sinking to 11 deg by the old 00:35 slot (which could never have run). Ran 18:50-21:16, finishing 34 min early (plan complete, not a fault); images landed under /images/qisback/T32/NGC5128 |
+| (id not captured) | T8 | 22 Jul | 21:45-00:45 | cra-t8.txt | ~250 | booked + MySummary-verified 2026-07-21 11:45 UTC. This is queue #2 finally placed: see the resolution note below. Runs 11:45-14:45 UTC 22 Jul |
 | 749314 | T33 | 21 Jul | 00:05-00:50 | ngc104-test.txt | 0 (free) | booked + grid-verified 2026-07-21 08:55 UTC. 47 Tuc first-light retry, third attempt. Runs 14:05-14:50 UTC 21 Jul. Reschedule flag again No (free scopes never rebook) |
 
 The T33 first-light test is now on its THIRD booking (749314); the two prior free
@@ -83,7 +96,7 @@ Verify every booking via Edit.aspx?id= probing (sequential ids), NOT the grid.
 | # | Scope id | start | end | start sel | end sel | Plan | Est. pts |
 |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | BOOKED as 749302 (see table above); the original 00:35 slot was an error, Cen A is an EVENING target (35 deg floor on T32) | | | | | cena-t32.txt | ~350 |
-| 2 | GRAS008 | 2026-07-22T01:35:00 | 2026-07-22T04:35:00 | 1:35 AM | 4:35 AM | cra-t8.txt | ~250 | CONFLICT: user hajo holds T8 00:25-02:25 that night (res 749207), overlapping our 01:35 start. See resolution note below |
+| 2 | BOOKED 2026-07-21 for the night of 22 Jul, 21:45-00:45 (see table above); the 01:35 slot was blocked by hajo and low anyway | | | | | cra-t8.txt | ~250 |
 | 3 | GRAS059 | 2026-07-25T20:35:00 | 2026-07-25T23:55:00 | 8:35 PM | 11:55 PM | ngc6188-haoiii-t59.txt | ~120 (disc.) |
 | 4 | GRAS059 | 2026-07-27T20:35:00 | 2026-07-27T23:05:00 | 8:35 PM | 11:05 PM | ngc6188-sii-t59.txt | ~90 (disc.) |
 | 5 | GRAS008 | 2026-08-08T02:35:00 | 2026-08-08T06:05:00 | 2:35 AM | 6:05 AM | smc47tuc-t8.txt | ~390 |
@@ -117,6 +130,40 @@ full remaining queue runs ~2,530 vs 2,257 balance (~270 over): once actual bills
 for Cen A and CrA land, trim Phase 3 (shorten Tarantula #6 or the SMC slot)
 to land the balance near zero.
 
+### Session 2026-07-21 ~11:40 UTC (Cen A verify + cra-t8 booked)
+
+Ran ahead of the 12:13 UTC scheduled job, after Cen A had finished at 11:16 UTC.
+
+- **Cen A verified**: completed, billed 160, NGC5128 images on the scope server.
+  Ledger and rate model updated (the x1.6 model is withdrawn: see the rate
+  correction above).
+- **cra-t8 booked**, but on a better slot than the deferred option (b). Probing
+  New.aspx for the original 01:35-04:35 returned "Conflicting reservation. Start
+  time must be later than 2:25 AM" (hajo, as predicted), confirming that option
+  (a) was all that remained on the night of 21 Jul, and it puts Corona Australis
+  3.5-6.5 h past the meridian. Instead the run went to the EVENING of the next
+  night: **2026-07-22T21:45 - 2026-07-23T00:45 SSO local**, which brackets the
+  ~22:30 culmination, so the whole 115 min of imaging happens near the zenith.
+  This is option (c)'s geometry on option (b)'s night; the reason (c) was
+  unbookable earlier (quota held by Cen A) had expired by the time Cen A
+  completed. Grid probing showed no conflict on either side of the slot.
+  Verified in Reservation/MySummary.aspx; quota now 6:50 / 8:00.
+- Moon on the night of 22 Jul is ~57% illuminated, the last usable night before
+  the bright-week narrowband phase. LRGB on a dust complex under a half moon is
+  a compromise, but the alternative is slipping a Phase 1 broadband target into
+  the bright week, which is worse.
+- Reservation id NOT captured: the confirm response carries only
+  `ModalStatic.result("OK")` and MySummary does not print ids. Nothing depends
+  on the id unless the booking must be edited or deleted, in which case find it
+  by probing Edit.aspx?id= around the current sequence (749314 was issued
+  ~08:55 UTC on 21 Jul).
+- Budget: 2,097 left, 19 nights to 10 Aug. Remaining queue at card rates is
+  roughly 1,300, which UNDER-spends by ~800. With the x1.6 model withdrawn, the
+  next planning session should add work rather than trim it: candidates are a
+  second narrowband night on T59 (observed 127/hr, the only scope with a
+  trustworthy rate), or extending the Phase 3 SMC and Tarantula runs, both of
+  which have the sky time to absorb longer plans.
+
 Substitution rules: if T71 returns to service, move #2 and #7 to T71 (faster
 f/2.8 optics, cheaper 106 pts/hr; re-cut the plans for 1.55"/px). If T70's
 server returns, book #7 as-is. Check the go.itelescope.net status line before

plans/README.md

@@ -84,6 +84,15 @@ Reservation. Success = response script `ModalStatic.result("OK")` AND the bookin
 appearing in the grid: the modal also says "OK" on silent failure, so ALWAYS
 re-fetch the grid and look for the reservation id + username.
 
+Availability probing (2026-07-21): a plain GET of
+`New.aspx?start=...&end=...&r=...` is a cheap, side-effect-free conflict check.
+The form comes back with the two time dropdowns populated for +/-60 min around
+the requested times, and if the slot collides with someone else's booking it
+also renders "Conflicting reservation. Start time must be later than H:MM AM".
+No message plus a full pair of dropdowns means the window is clear. This beats
+reading the DayPilot grid, whose event divs do not survive a plain
+Invoke-WebRequest fetch (they are rendered client-side).
+
 Rules learned: maximum reservation length 4:00; recommended duration 1.5x total
 imaging time; the attached plan is auto-started by iTelescope at reservation
 start (no walk-in POST needed); RescheduleCheckbox auto-rebooks the identical

state/NOTES.md

@@ -61,6 +61,19 @@ time, vs the 80/hr the card predicted. So either Time Used (wall clock) is what
 gets billed, or the card's data-default-rate is stale. Consequence: estimate
 sessions at rate x reserved-slot-length (slots run ~1.15-1.5x imaging time), i.e.
 multiply old exposure-based estimates by ~1.6 until more bills confirm the model.
+
+**RATE CORRECTION 2 (2026-07-21, second bill; SUPERSEDES the x1.6 rule above).**
+T32 session 851344: 120 min of exposure, Time Used 2h25m55s, 25% moon discount,
+billed 160. 160 = 2.00 h x 80 exactly, and the T59 bill is 381 = 3.00 h x 127
+exactly. Both land on the plan's IMAGING minutes to the point, and neither lands
+on wall time. So the wall-clock theory is dead and the original "billed per
+minute of exposure" documentation was right; what is wrong is the card's
+per-scope numbers. Observed effective rates: **T59 127/hr** (card said 80),
+**T32 80/hr even after a 25% moon discount**, implying a base near 107/hr (card
+said 146). The pair looks transposed, but two samples cannot prove it. Rules:
+do NOT apply any blanket multiplier; derive each scope's rate from its first
+real bill; until then treat a card rate as +/-60%; and compute estimates from
+the plan's exposure total, never from the reserved slot length.
 Paid imaging needs no reservation when a scope is idle: same walk-in ACP flow
 as the free scopes, points just deduct. Reservations (to guarantee a slot) go
 through lookup.itelescope.online, which is Cloudflare-protected: Playwright

state/TODO.md

@@ -26,30 +26,37 @@
   (grid-verified), third attempt at the first-light test, runs 14:05-14:50 UTC
   21 Jul, costs 0.
 
+## Done (recent)
+
+- 2026-07-21 11:40 UTC: Cen A on T32 verified COMPLETE (billed 160, NGC5128
+  images on the scope server), and queue #2 (Corona Australis on T8) booked for
+  the night of 22 Jul, 21:45-00:45 SSO local, which brackets the target's
+  culmination instead of chasing it down the western sky. Rate model rebuilt
+  from two actual bills. Details in the CAMPAIGN.md session note.
+
 ## In progress
 
-- T33 first-light test on its THIRD booking (749314). The two prior free
+- T33 first-light test on its THIRD booking (749314), which had NOT yet run as of
-  reservations (749228, 749229) expired unused with reschedule=No; the free-scope
+  11:40 UTC 21 Jul: it starts 14:05 UTC. Verify after 14:50 UTC (images and logs
-  auto-start appears not to fire. If 749314 also fails to run, stop rebooking and
+  on t33.itelescope.net:8033 were still empty/stale at 11:40, as expected). The
-  either walk it in (POST plan.asp per plans/README.md) or drop the free objective.
+  two prior free reservations (749228, 749229) expired unused with reschedule=No;
-- CEN A verify pending: reservation 749302 (T32) runs 08:50-11:50 UTC 21 Jul.
+  if 749314 also fails to run, stop rebooking and either walk it in (POST
-  After 11:50 UTC, confirm images on t32.itelescope.net:8032, pull the actual
+  plan.asp per plans/README.md) or drop the free objective.
-  bill from Account/History.aspx, spot-check a preview, and refine the x1.6 rate
+- CrA on T8 runs 11:45-14:45 UTC 22 Jul. Verify after 14:45 UTC: images under
-  model in NOTES.md.
+  /images/qisback/T8/ on t8.itelescope.net:8008, then the actual bill from
-- cra-t8 (queue #2) NOT yet booked, deferred twice over: (1) quota held by Cen A
+  account/history.aspx into the ledger. This is the first T8 bill, so it also
-  until ~11:50 UTC; (2) user hajo holds T8 00:25-02:25 SSO local that night
+  fixes T8's effective rate (card says 130/hr; trust nothing until observed).
-  (res 749207), overlapping our planned 01:35-04:35. Resolution: prefer booking
-  the NEXT night (2026-07-23T01:35-04:35) to dodge hajo and keep altitude; see
-  the resolution note in CAMPAIGN.md. Scheduled job ae3af497 (~12:13 UTC) handles
-  Cen A verify + this booking with a live grid re-check.
 - DRAIN CAMPAIGN ACTIVE (see CAMPAIGN.md): spend the full balance by 10 Aug,
   then cancel before the 12 Aug renewal (user confirmation required for the
-  cancel itself). 381 of 2,638 spent; 2,257 remain. Estimates run ~1.6x low vs
+  cancel itself). 541 of 2,638 spent; 2,097 remain. The x1.6 estimate multiplier
-  actual billing (see NOTES rate correction). Reschedule flag never sticks (grid
+  is WITHDRAWN: billing is on plan imaging minutes, and per-scope rates must come
-  always shows No): treat every reservation as one-shot and verify the morning
+  from actual bills (T59 127/hr, T32 80/hr observed; the NOTES rate card is
-  after. Download the NGC 6744 data from data.itelescope.net before the 10 Aug
+  unreliable). On current numbers the campaign UNDER-spends by ~800: plan extra
-  cancellation sweep. Update the CAMPAIGN.md ledger after every session from
+  or longer runs, do not trim. Reschedule flag never sticks (grid always shows
-  account/history.aspx.
+  No): treat every reservation as one-shot and verify the morning after.
+  Download the NGC 6744 and NGC 5128 data from data.itelescope.net before the
+  10 Aug cancellation sweep. Update the CAMPAIGN.md ledger after every session
+  from account/history.aspx.
 
 ## Pending